The World Bank
The International Organization for Migration
Every year, millions of people worldwide are trafficked, which has a profound impact on development and vulnerable populations. Human trafficking violates the fundamental principles of human rights that are linked to a range of core development issues, including poverty and vulnerability, gender and racial inequality, and gender-based violence. The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to end modern slavery and human trafficking by the year 2030. Governments are increasingly concerned about human trafficking but understand relatively little about who is involved, how it operates, and what enables or constrains it. The illegal—and thus less visible— nature of the practice makes it difficult to investigate. One of the main reasons for the gap in knowledge is the lack of micro-level data on human trafficking. These knowledge gaps make it harder for governments in origin and destination countries to adopt effective policies to reduce human trafficking. They also limit the ability of international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and donors to help governments mitigate the risks of human trafficking.
The World Bank and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) place importance on advancing an understanding of the drivers of human trafficking (Box E.1). To begin addressing some knowledge gaps, this joint report analyzes a unique micro-level trafficked victims’ database compiled and updated by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to answer two key analytical questions. First, do economic shocks increase the number of detected human trafficking cases from and within countries of origin? Second, can good institutions—ones that can enable adherence to the rule of law and the provision of access to justice or anti-trafficking policies in particular—and social assistance moderate the possible negative effects of economic shocks on trafficking cases in origin countries?
Through its support to victims of trafficking, IOM has developed the largest database of human trafficking cases in the world. In line with the growing recognition that trafficking is a domestic problem as well as a transnational crime (Cortés‑McPherson 2020), roughly 20 percent of trafficking cases in the Victims of Human Trafficking database for which the destination information is available took place within a country’s borders.1 IOM’s database does not represent the entire universe of human trafficking victims. It only covers countries with an IOM presence on the ground (which varies across space and over time) and only captures trafficking victims who are being assisted by IOM (including those initially identified by IOM partners who are later referred to IOM).
The report’s analysis focuses on a key supply-side risk factor that is expected to increase vulnerability to human trafficking from and within origin countries—economic shocks, defined as large, discrete changes to commodity prices and GDP. It also explores the role of governance. According to UNODC (2020), 65 percent of victims were trafficked within their own countries. IOM’s data contains information on the country of exploitation for 70 percent of cases, of which about 20 percent are trafficked internally. institutions, such as the rule of law, access to justice, and anti-trafficking policies, act as protective factors that could weaken the link between economic shocks and vulnerability to trafficking in countries of origin. the main finding is that economic shocks are significant risk factors that increase vulnerability to human trafficking. in origin countries, economic vulnerabilities—especially those caused by global commodity price shocks—are strongly positively correlated with the number of observed cases of trafficking. unusually large shocks to economic growth have a similar effect. yet, the analysis suggests that good governance institutions (particularly a commitment to the rule of law and access to justice), stricter anti-trafficking policies, and social assistance can have a limiting effect on the number of observed cases of trafficking following economic shocks. as one of the most comprehensive empirical analyses of human trafficking cases to date, this study enhances understanding of the determinants and patterns of human trafficking. it is the first to empirically document the relationship between economic shocks and human trafficking.
The findings suggest that cOviD-19-induced economic shocks are likely to increase vulnerability to human trafficking (see uNODc 2021). Governments have been forced to shut down economic activities and close borders to curb the transmission of the virus. Border closures in the midst of an economic shock could make migrants in some contexts more likely to seek irregular migration routes, which are likely to increase vulnerability to trafficking. Human trafficking will remain a major risk after cOviD-19 is brought under control, which merits high levels of policy attention and resources.